O
Brave New World: CES
Starts The Year
Nearly
every year I say I’m going to CES – in the summer when a winter
trip to Las Vegas sounds inviting, especially now that COMDEX is
gone. But when January comes I almost never get on the plane.
Something (usually work) intervenes and I settle for phone
calls and emails from colleagues, bragging about what they’re
seeing (and I’m missing), while they complain about how little is
new and unexpected.
But
most big electronics shows are like that.
We want them to thrill us, to show us something we’ve never
seen or imagined before. Occasionally
that happens – but not very often.
So
here’s what I heard and what I think it means:
·
Convergence is no longer the future; it is happening now.
Cameras have phones and web access; PDAs can be phones.
Phones can be music players (no, not just the custom ring
tones, they can store songs and play them –but generally not for
very long). In the
home PCs can be home media centers and set top boxes can be email
systems – or programmable next generation TIVOs.
You get the idea.
·
VOIP is a done deal: The
traditional telcos may be a done deal, too, if they don’t jump
onto the band wagon quickly enough (and in the right way).
Looking for insight. The
place to find it is Jeff Pulver’s VON Conference, March 7-10 in
San Jose, CA with info at http://www.pulver.com/von/
where the entire VOIP industry meets to argue about the future.
In the meantime, let’s say we’re getting ready to move
from weird individuals and very small businesses saving money to
VOIP becoming a business technology – and at free to cheap, who
can pass it up?
·
Big is in: A hit at the show was the Samsung giant HDTV screen, so big
that the football players on the 80” screen were BIGGER than in
real life. (Given
that some of those bruisers are bigger than 6’5” and 300+
pounds, that sounds pretty scary.)
Samsung says it will be available in March for $39,999,
with a 102” screen coming soon.
If that’s too rich for your blood, take heart. Cheaper HDTV prices are another CES trend, and there will be
lots of $1200 to $2500 boxes to look at in the 30” to 42”
range this year.
The
reason I’m always so ambiguous about CES is that it’s a CONSUMER
show and I focus on the business sector.
But something interesting has been happening.
1.
First, there is a lot of convergence going on. Lots of companies are distributing their workforce, and lots
of that distributed workforce uses a home office as their base.
Second, business consumers often buy better electronics for
themselves – for at home or their individual business use (think
cell/Smartphones and PDAs and talking cards) than their companies
are offering.
2.
Then their experience with the newest goodies influences what they demand
for themselves and their workers.
So what you can buy in the consumer market may now be
influencing what we decide to buy in the business market, instead
of the other way around.
I
guess I’m going to CES next year.
At least I’ll put it on the calendar.
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