Is
There A Desktop Strategy For Linux?
Woven
through this newsletter are glimpses of vendors who don't look at
Linux as a desktop strategy, vendors who think it might be one in
the future, but don't see it as a desktop yet, and others who are
sure it is one - it's just hard to see.
According
to the IDC numbers, only about 1.7% of the desktops shipped last
year went out with Linux. That's
deceptive, since most Linux isn't shipped on a computer (as almost
all of Windows is), but rather as a separate piece of software,
typically a download, which a user chooses to try on his machine.
This
assumes several things:
 |
The
user probably already has a computer (or he's ordered a mew
"naked" computer without an operating system (not
all that easy).
|
|
The
user is unlikely to be a new user - new users wouldn't take on
this job.
|
|
The
user is pretty sure he doesn't need Windows software or he
knows how to access some from a Linux desktop (again, this
must not be a standard corporate user or a new user because
this would be odd behavior for such a user).
|
It
is possible to buy a desktop computer with Linux:
-
You
can special order it from some hardware vendors
-
A
few retail outlets (WalMart.com and Tiger) sell very low-end
PC's pre-loaded with Linux.
We
thought these machines were going to the consumer market (given
their channel), but some of the suppliers to that channel claim
that the machines are really going to education buyers and others
with an interest in Linux and the skills to support users.
We
believe there will be a volume desktop Linux market when:
-
It
is very easy to buy a preloaded machine -- hardware, software (operating
system and a selection of applications), and drivers.
-
When
buying compatible devices and networks (or using existing PC Devices)
is not an issue, even for users with little or no skill.
-
When
a large number of familiar (or similar) applications, including
personal productivity, business, and games are readily
available, with conventional support.
That
could happen right now if (and this is the most important condition)
-
Customers,
in volume, demand Linux desktops.
It's
a chicken and egg thing, folks.
Either some vendors have to make an investment ahead of
market demand, or some customers have to want it so much they'll
commit to buying Linux desktops and lure the vendors out.
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