Demo 2002:  Take I

Demo is one of the best industry insider conferences.  Not only is it all about who’s there, a kind of annual gathering of the clan (and further proof to my claim that there are really only a few hundred people in the computer industry – they just keep changing jobs), it’s also all about what they’re currently interested in – or might become interested in soon.  That’s a great mix.  It’s the only meeting I’ve never walked away from disappointed.  This year was no exception.

First there was the mood.  Most of the meetings in the last year have been grim.  Small attendance.  Lots of doom and gloom.  The end of the world as we know it.  Not here.  Attendees were upbeat.  Naturally, they were more realistic.  Everybody’s had their expectations downsized by the collapse of the dot.com bubble, the recession, and the Enron mess, but there’s a feeling now that we’re over the worst of it and it’s time to start planning for what we’re going to succeed with next.  It feels good.

I’m going to offer comments on some specific products over the next few weeks – using them as take-off points to talk about new or emerging market/technology opportunities, but in this briefer note I’d like to give you a sense of some of the trends that were clear in Phoenix this week.  

1. Mobility is going to be a big thing, but we’re struggling with the business model for how it’s going to happen as a mainstream phenomenon.  Lots of cool technology, from new models of converged handhelds and very small stuff to a new way of getting better wireless coverage by putting repeaters on the weather balloons that are launched every day.  What’s missing is a clear understanding of how much people will pay for what service and who’s going to provide which piece for how much.  These are business model issues and I could feel my sleeves auto-rolling up as I watched some of the most appealing stuff.  
   
   

2. Enterprise software is a safer play and moving business to the on-line world requires lots of new stuff.  With the end of opportunity for consumer-focused investments, many developers have turned their talents to the business world, which continues to buy product, especially infrastructure product to enhance performance, increase reliability, offer better information, or improve revenue through enhanced customer relationships.  This kind of software was at Demo in quantity and we saw much that we liked, especially some strong applications for e-business that we’ll deal with separately in a future issue.  
   
   

3. New technologies and the decreasing cost and increasing power of existing technologies are enabling things we’ve talked about for a long time but which haven’t been practical before.  Demo showcased a Robot kit with amazing power that will let you build a mobile, speaking, intelligent bot with the ability to follow you around (and carry your beer) for $995 plus your high-end laptop PC.  We were also beguiled by progress in software for building interactive cyberworlds that offer real time, video quality activity.  Again, more of both of these as part of separate pieces. 

I admit this is intended to be a tease.  I promise more next week.

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