Sun Changes Demons

This year’s Sun Analysts’ Conference (San Francisco, February 6-8), was all about change. 

Sun announced a full line of Sun Storage Hardware (moving past, way past, its prior reliance on a re-branded, outsourced offering) and emphasizing Storage Software as a major advantage of its storage offering.  (Interestingly, one day later, IBM announced the reorganization of its Storage division, led by Linda Sanford, creating a new Storage Software Group as part of that division, to be managed by Michael Zisman, formerly President of Lotus and an adviser on mergers and acquisitions to IBM). 

A feature of Sun announcements and meetings has always been none-too-subtle jabs at its chief competitor Microsoft.  (We’ve always thought this strong focus on Microsoft was a little strange in light of the fact that Sun CEO Scott McNealy likes to claim that Sun is in the server business and in the past often referred to Sun’s software as just “a way to sell more servers.”)  Forget that.  This year, Microsoft was nearly forgotten as Sun switched its competitive spotlight to IBM.  This seemed appropriate as it is IBM, clearly, Sun must meet in the server, systems, and solutions marketplace.  However, Sun is still up to its favorite tricks.  One analyst claims to have kept a count of how many times Sun mentioned IBM negatively in one day (February 7, it was a very long day), and says the count exceeded 400; it seemed excessive, paranoid, and a little boring.

There was lots of emphasis on software.  This is a whole new focus for Sun.  Of course, they have always had software – and done some good and innovative work here, from their solid and popular UNIX implementation, Solaris, to their pioneering work with Java.  Nevertheless, it was clear that the balance had shifted this year, with much less emphasis in the presentations on new chips and powerful processing and much more emphasis on the final integration of the Netscape iPlanet servers from AOL into Sun, the aforementioned Sun storage software, and a new meta operating system (N1) that to some old hands seemed a kind of New Age version of VM.  Some things, we nodded to each other, never change.

Another shift was Sun’s decision to have a Linux announcement during the Analysts’ Conference.  From the timing (just a week after LinuxWorld, the natural venue for such an event) and its informality (Sun executives seemed vague as to the details in answering press and analyst questions), we got the impression, this was a last-minute decision.  In any case, while Sun tried to present this as a natural extension of a long and solid existing commitment to Linux, many analysts questioned Sun long and hard on its rationale. 

After all, in the main tent, Sun kept telling analysts that its strength was its ability to offer a single operating system. Solaris, on systems from under $1,000 to $10 million, while in the early morning Linux announcement Sun was busily explaining that offering a low-end Linux on x-86 strategy was simply a complement to its Cobalt appliance (also Linux) and Solaris strategy.  We (and others) suspect that it’s more likely due to customer demand for Linux.  We’re very curious to see:  

  1. How many Sun customers buy a Linux box (other than the Cobalt offering) from Sun.  That is, do Sun customers want to buy Linux boxes and (more important) do they want to buy them from Sun?

  2. Just how far up the processor and performance power range will Sun agree to let its Linux offerings go, since they will quickly be competing with their own Solaris offerings that command (at least for now) higher prices.

Sun is offering tools to test Linux applications to see that they will run (with a recompile) on Solaris.  That, of course, would give them access to a new developer community.  But what if the Linux developers and users see the Sun offering as simply a good way to help their customers migrate to less expensive Linux platforms?

Admittedly, Sun, like many companies who flourished as dot.com preferred suppliers, has suffered as the dot.com bubble collapsed.  They seem to be emerging from these problems with a better sense of focus, a stronger discipline, a better appreciation of partnering strategies, and a continuing strong commitment to R&D.  Those should serve them well as the market returns to a more normal, stronger state.  But the information processing market is too dynamic to ever exactly repeat itself.  Normal in 2002/2003 won’t be 1998 repeated, but rather some different kind of normalcy, with different values, different new players, and different IT priorities in the ascendancy.  Sun will need to adapt (for example, to accept permanently lower hardware margins), to understand how to change its business model (much more of a mix of software and services), and to continue to change its customer and partner focus. 

Now that they have decided it is IBM and not Microsoft that is the main competition, Sun needs to readjust to the higher expectations of customers who are accustomed to the resources and services of a big, polished, and very experienced player. The stakes get a lot higher now. 


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