Happy 2002

01/04/02

Welcome to the New Year!  We look forward to better times, both politically, for a world free of terrorism, and financially, as we climb out of the 2001 recession and into a Brave New World.

And, of course, we wish you and your family a year of health, happiness, and peace.

What will we find in our own information markets this year?

We suspect that the going may be a bit slower than we’d like on all fronts but that progress will be positive and measurable.  Here are some of the milestones we’re looking for – perhaps you’ll share some of yours:

Some strong liquidity events to put some faith back into the Venture Capital markets and bring some of the hibernating startups back to life.  This could take the form of a few good IPO’s at reasonable (but clearly not absurd) values, with much attention being paid to traditional measures such as profitability, shipping products, referenceable customers, and sound business models. Or it might be shown through some rational acquisitions and/or mergers, at a scale where the surviving firm has a clear goal and a clearer chance of success.

 
A few important announcements.  Vendors don’t like to “waste” announcements, so we sense they will hold back until they believe customers are in a buying mood.  A flurry of important announcements would be a good indication that the thaw is on.  (This leads to the possibility that a few strong vendors could stimulate a thaw by creating an announcement flurry – did we say that?)

 
It used to be that important conferences/shows were the venues for dozens of important announcements but that is less so today on several fronts.  

 

(1) The conference business was already way down before 9/11 and it swooned further after that.  We’re not sure that it will ever be quite the same as more and more companies discover that web conferencing can accomplish  many of the same goals at much lower costs in time and money, while permitting many more employees to participate (all without leaving their desks).  If the conference is much smaller, it’s much less exciting as an announcement venue.

 
(2) Lots of vendors are attending many fewer “big” shows.  They’ve discovered they can get more for their dollars by running their own events or by attending smaller, more focused regional and vertical market shows (which are also, of course, much less expensive).  This means they do their “announcing” somewhere else, often at their own events or via separate web conferences for customers, press, and analysts.

 
(3) It’s no fun to make an announcement and be one of dozens that day.  Vendors have discovered that at a “big” show, even a smaller big show, you can’t be the star unless you’re very, very important.  That means that even your big announcement tends to get lost in the noise.  Better to save it for another time when it gets all the attention.

So we could use some big announcements and with web conferencing being the single biggest distribution channel these days for announcements I suspect you’ll get them sitting right at your desk. For example, you’ll be able to view Steve Jobs rescheduled Apple MacWorld keynote, for example, Monday January 7 at 9 a.m. PST at http://stream.apple.akadns.net/.

 

   

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