Wrapping Up 1996
December 1996
Some thoughts on what happened in 1996 and some predictions for 1997.
· Please note that Microsoft has not yet taken over the computer software marketplace, although it does better than very well. There are still markets that continue to elude its top-of-the-market goals, notably relational database, browsers, and groupware. That will give them something to try harder for in 1997.
There are already rumors that Microsoft might re-unite its SQL Server product with its roots by buying the ailing Sybase and instantly increasing Microsoft's market share and credibility. We'd guess '97 will also be a year in which, as Netscape tries three different browser/client/desktop strategies, Microsoft will have a really good chance to press Explorer further in market share.
· IBM has amazed us all year with its comeback performance, leading both the technology sector and the market to new highs. We're particularly impressed with IBM's careful reading of customer interest in the network computer and how they're gearing up to give customers whatever flavor -- from terminal replacement to networked PC -- they might prefer.
We're also fascinated with how IBM managed to borrow Microsoft's dime and quickly turn into an Internet vendor. If you haven't checked out the IBM AlphaWorks site on the net (www.alphaworks.ibm.com), go have a glance at an IBM view of the future of the Internet, Java, and component software, to name a few hot topics.
· Digital Equipment Corporation disappointed us by not making the numbers, but pleased us greatly with its launch of its Alta Vista software for the Internet (check it out at (www.altavista.com)). Digital is moving in the direction of a software and services company (as is IBM) and in 1997 both of them will continue to be in the news with big systems integration contracts, many of them intranet-related.
More generally, we look at 1997 to be a big year for:
· The cheap PC -- look for <$1,000 PC's for the value-oriented home buyer. Count on small business to buy some.
· The rise of the handheld computer. Windows CE is going to make a new market -- at last!
· The rise of the wireless market. Helping handhelds along -- content from the Internet, the promise (but not much delivery in 97) of voice interfaces, and the growth of wireless infrastructure.
· Convergence in the cellular phone/page market, with more convergence to come (we're telling you we've seen some neat stuff that could come to market in 97).
· PentiumPro as the standard desktop for new machines.
· The beginnings of a component software market, starting with developers (the user market won't start till 98 or later).
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Entire contents © 1995,1996 by Amy D. Wohl. All rights reserved. Reproduction of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden.