COMDEX Status Report (April 1995)
May 1995
We always count on a stroll (or maybe it's a push, considering the crowds) around the COMDEX floor to give us the mood of the industry and a sense of what's hot. Before the first day was over at COMDEX in Atlanta, this year's themes were clear:
• No one will do anything this year or next without taking Windows 95 into account. This doesn't mean they will buy it or use it right away -- lots of users will decide to defer their decision or even make a different choice -- but no one will be able to ignore the swirl of activity that Microsoft has created, the feeling that Something Is Happening Here.
We are fairly certain that all of the hardware OEM's will switch to Windows 95 as soon as they can -- applications software permitting -- and that will guarantee that 20 million or more machines will be sold with the new operating system in its first year. Certainly another 10 million Windows 3.1 customers can be counted on to upgrade, so Windows 95 is likely to be an instant success.
On the other hand, there are signs that W95 isn't likely to be the only game in town:
• Software ISV's who had originally planned to stop upgrading their Windows 3.1 products and do new work only for Windows 95 are now talking about Windows 3.1 upgrades, given the very large number of customers who will be slow to change.
• User organizations are, in spite of the huge 400,000 copy Windows 95 Preview Program, talking about how long it will take them to make a Windows 95 decision and how long a transition could take, especially given that many of them would need to upgrade or replace significant amounts of hardware (the real cost).
• Some customers have noticed that Microsoft is now talking about the Windows 95 interface for NT Desktop (delivering very soon) and their interest in converging the Windows and NT desktops -- as soon as 16MB on desktops is reasonable (probably 1996 or 1997). They could just skip a rollout that probably wouldn't be completed before they have to start changing all over again. These customers will just start moving to NT sooner than planned. This assumes that Windows applications aren't a necessity, but with Microsoft requiring that ISV's commit to writing NT versions of their Windows 95 applications to gain the Windows logo, this could be a lessening problem.
• Multimedia and its CD-ROM infrastructure are everywhere. Vendors and users are going to have to start getting good at using multimedia instead of talking about it.
• NT server is a done deal. ‘96 will be its year to roll.
• In fact, servers -- hardware and software -- were everywhere. Client/Server is a fact of life.
• Pen still hasn't popped, but progress continues. Maybe next year.
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Entire contents © 1995 by Amy D. Wohl. All rights reserved. Reproduction of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden.